Since we are now into January, I can finish my series of graphs. Now is this proof that global warming is not occurring? Of course not.
At this point in time, I am not sure it can be proven either way; at least not in any absolute manner. There are too many groups with too many axes to grind — particularly in the Green environment where the ax is quite frankly driven to a large degree by financial benefit — that have stirred the waters up until it is too muddy to gain any sort of clarity about the situation. Government has gotten itself involved — again with the overly driven Green organizations using their influence to get Governments to throw lots and lots of money into the pot — which has further muddied things by way of regulations and subsidies, all of which are being paid by the average ordinary individual either in the form of taxes or higher utility bills or the like.
I have been around long enough that I remember life before Global warming (or AGW) was in any manner widely accepted. I have seen many decades pass by and all during those years, I have repeatedly asked, “Where is the evidence of this warming everyone is claims so fervently to be happening?” The primary evidence cited is the global temperature anomaly. Other supporting data provided is sourced from computer model runs. Beyond that, there is circumstantial evidence along the lines of “arctic ice is vanishing … polar bears are threatened … glaciers are melting … the sea level is rising.”
Yet, when one pursues these topics, it is found that the arctic ice is on the rebound, polar bears are doing fine, some glaciers are retreating, some are holding their own and others are expanding, and where there is some sea level rise, it is mostly due to land subsidence rather than any sea level volume change.
What a person’s opinion on these matters might be is up to that person. This is about the graph I am about to show and what it means to me. It may mean similar to some who look at it, it may mean nothing or it may be a laughing stock to some. That matters little, for I have no control (and no desire for any control) over what people think. I leave that to the warming alarmistas who insist that everyone must think the same as they do.
Either people use the ability their brain presents them to think for themselves rather falling in with whatever popular “group think” is currently making the rounds or they do not. Those that avail themselves of “group think” is not likely to be persuaded by any form of logic, since the driving force is to keep their thinking in line with the rest of the group and unless the group can be convinced, the individual will not.
This graph is simply an effort by me to say what I see happening outside my door is real. I do not see the signs of the great changes most AGW alarmists are trying to sell so loudly. What I see happening outside is simply something that has gone on for hundreds of years,thousands of years, millions of years. Weather. Ordinary, daily weather, with all the variances and nuances it provides year after year after year. I do not see any sign that we are heading toward any sort of great cataclysmic event. (At least not one due to excessive heating. With the calming of the sun into a very tame solar cycle and the possibility that this quiescent state may endure for some time yet into the future, we may well be headed in the opposite direction to global warming. But that is a topic for another day.)
This graph is for one location in the middle of the USA. It is not the entire world. However, if the warming trend is so pernicious as is claimed, is so evident, is so dominant as is claimed, then one would think it would show up in local data. I tried to use data that has not been massaged beyond any simple conditioning; I used the data directly into the graph, using only the average function in Excel for the simple reason I wanted data that did not have bias introduced in the process of making it “usable”. Just simple data in a simple graph. Unlike the warming camp.
There are graphs out there that I refer to as “Scaree-graphs”. I have seen them referenced and often accompanied with a line such as “This shows global warming is occurring and is real and is happening now!” One such as this:
Very impressive is it not?
(Right click on graph to open in new tab to view larger)
This graph just screams “Danger! Danger!” doesn’t it?
Well, er, that is until you look at one little tiny thing:
That is right. The scaling is in 1/100 of a degree Celsius. Or .018 Degree Fahrenheit. So the max of the chart is 80. 80 times 1/100 equals .8 degree C. So by this chart — which looks to show that the recent warming began in 1978 or so — has in fact warmed a magnificent amount of .65C or so? Or about 1.17, give or take, in Degrees F. So, in 36 years, give or take, there is less than 1 and a half degree F warmup. Yeah, that is certainly going to turn Chicken Little into Chicken Fricassee.
Considering the margin of error in the equipment, in the records, in the concatenation of the records to reduce the available data into one number for the entire globe, the change really is not that far off from being a zero change. Yet it is on the strength of this chart and others like it that Trillions of dollars are to be spent to reduce CO2 to prevent further changes.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, simple data charted out shows what has been going on the last two years here where I live:
No fancy scaling maneuvers, the scale is in Degrees F. The solid lines are the long term average. The dotted lines show the last two years. Nothing fancy. Nothing threatening. Just an indication of ordinary weather doing its ordinary thing. Up a little one month, down a little another. It is not straying very far from average, it is not consistently on one side or the other of average.
Now, those who believe so strongly in the upcoming global warming Apocalypse will ridicule and denigrate what I have done here. So be it.
For those who have an open mind, well, perhaps it will say to them what I have been saying all along. It is just weather. Just normal, ordinary plain old weather.
On a final note, what do the satellites have to say on the issue? Well, you can see the RSS information here:
And Dr. Roy Spencer has the UAH information here: