My position on Global Warming

What is my position in the Anthropogenic Global Warming, i.e Human Driven Climate Change wars?

First of all I hold the position that AGW (or HDCC) is nothing more than a hypothesis to explain a data artifact found in the historical weather records.  Let me repeat that: I believe it is nothing more than a hypothesis.

AGW or Human Driven Climate Change exists only in one place: within the data of historical weather records, or to be even more precise, within the interpretations of the historical weather records.  No one anywhere has demonstrated, to my knowledge, the existence of AGW or HDCC in any manner shape or form that does not use the data which was the source of the hypothesis as the method of proof of existence.

What about the climate models?  One of the earliest terms I learned about computers was the GIGO definition.  Garbage In, Garbage Out.  Considering how poorly these models have done predicting anything approaching real world data, GIGO applies.  It can be argued that the purpose is not to predict future weather, only future long term trends; to determine how all the parts interact.  My reply is that any theory which is a true theory in order to be valid has to demonstrate a one to one (or close thereto) correlation between theoretical output and the real world counter part.  As of yet, none have produced any data that I am aware of that has fared well when compared with real world data.

Is there such a thing as Climate Change?  Certainly.  Climate has changed here on earth from the earliest times to present.  There is no reason to assume it will not change as many or more times to follow.

Is there such a thing as Human Driven Climate Change?  My answer is probably.  There is no way 3 billion or more humans living on this earth can avoid changing the immediate environment which is going to affect the climate in various ways.  There are a couple of caveats, however.  The first one being that not every way in which humans affect the climate is bad.  The second is that it may not be possible to determine with any degree of certainty what the magnitude of this change is likely to be.

Humans have, in my opinion, every bit as much potential for changing things in a positive manner as in a negative manner.  In a positive way?  Take for example those who are involved in agriculture.  A farmer who neglects to take care of the soil in which crops are raised will soon go broke.  If there are any around who understand the concept of sustainability, it is those who are ranchers and farmers.  They live very closely with weather.  Too little rain and crops die.  Too much rain and crops die.  Long hot summer days with no rain, crops die.  Frost coming early in the fall, crops die.  Frost coming late in the spring, crops die.  So yes, there are those humans who have every reason to take care of the environment in the areas they affect.  Irrigation to increase crop yield, proper and no-tillage methods of weed control helps prevent erosion, crop rotation to help keep the soil fertile, and so on and so on.  Green belt areas in cities, water reservoirs and flood control measures, proper forest management techniques, and more are all ways humans can help the environment and help, in the long run, with climate changes.

How much do humans affect the climate?  Now that  is the million, or perhaps billion dollar question.  I don’t think it will ever be completely quantified because we have reached a point where the cohesion between climate and the human population is at an extent where it cannot be separated.

So yes, I am not one to deny climate change.  I am one to deny that the change is PRIMARILY driven by human action or that it is primarily negative.  I am one deny that it can even be demonstrated how much is driven by human action and I am one to affirm that what needs to be done is put aside the debate over AGW / HDCC and instead concentrate on determining what is going to happen next, what the future actually holds in store and determine what we humans should be doing to be best equipped to deal with whatever changes are coming.

The lazy hazy days of summer are a lot easier to survive than the snowy blowy days of winter.   We spend all our effort to defend against global warming and instead get nailed by global cooling / ice age then we are gonna in pretty poor shape to deal with it.

Argue all you want, it will not change anything in the long run, what will be, will be.

 

 

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s